Beware the Black Swan

Solutionary Blog and Bloggers

Solutionary is an information security company. What does that mean? Simply put, we help businesses protect their assets, remain fully secure and safe online, and maintain and adhere to compliance regulations and standards. Solutionary's blog will be a place to learn about and discuss a wide variety of security and compliance topics. More information about Solutionary can be found here. To read the Solutionary blog comment policy and disclaimer, click here.

Solutionary Bloggers: 

Brad Curtis, Compliance Manager              Jon Heimerl, Director of Strategic Security
Mike Hrabik, Chief Technology Officer
Don Gray, Chief Security Strategist
Court Little, Director of Strategic Security
Phoram Mehta, Senior Security Consultant
Doug Picotte, Regional Technical Manager
Scott Simpson, Director, Security Consulting Services


Subscribe to our blog

Your email:

Solutionary Minds - Your Information Security Blog Source

Current Articles | RSS Feed RSS Feed

Beware the Black Swan

Posted by Don Gray on Mon, Mar 01, 2010 @ 01:38 PM
Share on Twitter Twitter | Share on Facebook Facebook | Submit to Digg digg it |  Add to delicious  delicious |  Submit to StumbleUpon StumbleUpon | Submit to Reddit reddit 
I have long been a big fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable." Personally, I think it should be required reading for all CSO's and information security and compliance personnel.

While the book has NOTHING to say about information security directly, it's focused on how we as humans perceive probability and risk, the tools we have created to measure and manage probability and risk, and why we do not anticipate the most significant events that will occur.

A Black Swan is an event that is:

  • Highly Improbable - difficult to predict based on historical information
  • High Consequence - yields a game changing and hugely significant impact
  • Retrospectively Distorted - after the fact, it seems stakeholders should have seen it coming.

An example from Taleb's book is Ceasar's Palace in Las Vegas - where the four most significant risk events had nothing to do with the conventional risk that we associate with gambling.

Those events are:

  • $100M loss from a star performer being mauled by his tiger
  • Disgruntled employee threatening to blow up facility with dynamite
  • Un-balanced, un-monitored employee mishandling tax forms
  • Kidnapping of owner's daughter

 While the casino had sophisticated methods and models to deal with "conventional" risks like controlling payout percentages and monitoring "whales" (high-stakes gamblers), in the end none of those methods or models helped predict the truly impactful events - the Black Swans.

An event from the information security world that comes to mind is the Domain Name System (DNS) vulnerability discovered in 2008. This vulnerability was so severe that the need for a concerted, expedited mass patching effort was required, and in retrospect it seems fairly obvious that the vulnerability would have existed.

I encourage you to take a look at this thought provoking book and keep an eye out for Black Swans that could appear in your organization.

Tags: 

COMMENTS

Currently, there are no comments. Be the first to post one!
Post Comment
Name
 *
Email
 *
Website (optional)
Comment
 *

Allowed tags: <a> link, <b> bold, <i> italics